Expert perceptions of game-changing innovations towards net zero

Current technological improvements are yet to put the world on track to net-zero, which will require the uptake of transformative low-carbon innovations to supplement mitigation efforts. However, the role of such innovations is not yet fully understood; some of these ‘miracles’ are considered indispensable to Paris Agreement-compliant mitigation, but their limitations, availability, and potential remain a source of debate. We evaluate such potentially game-changing innovations from the experts' perspective, aiming to support the design of realistic decarbonisation scenarios and better-informed net-zero policy strategies. In a worldwide survey, 260 climate and energy experts assessed transformative innovations against their mitigation potential, at-scale availability and/or widescale adoption, and risk of delayed diffusion. Hierarchical clustering and multi-criteria decision-making revealed differences in perceptions of core technological innovations, with next-generation energy storage, alternative building materials, iron-ore electrolysis, and hydrogen in steelmaking emerging as top priorities. Instead, technologies highly represented in well-below-2°C scenarios seemingly feature considerable and impactful delays, hinting at the need to re-evaluate their role in future pathways. Experts' assessments appear to converge more on the potential role of other disruptive innovations, including lifestyle shifts and alternative economic models, indicating the importance of scenarios including non-technological and demand-side innovations. To provide insights for expert elicitation processes, we finally note caveats related to the level of representativeness among the 260 engaged experts, the level of their expertise that may have varied across the examined innovations, and the potential for subjective interpretation to which the employed linguistic scales may be prone to

COVID-19 recovery packages can benefit climate targets and clean energy jobs, but scale of impacts and optimal investment portfolios differ among major economies

To meet the Paris temperature targets and recover from the effects of the pandemic, many countries have launched economic recovery plans, including specific elements to promote clean energy technologies and green jobs. However, how to successfully manage investment portfolios of green recovery packages to optimize both climate mitigation and employment benefits remains unclear. Here, we use three energy-economic models, combined with a portfolio analysis approach, to find optimal low-carbon technology subsidy combinations in six major emitting regions: Canada, China, the European Union (EU), India, Japan, and the United States (US). We find that, although numerical estimates differ given different model structures, results consistently show that a >50% investment in solar photovoltaics is more likely to enable CO2 emissions reduction and green jobs, particularly in the EU and China. Our study illustrates the importance of strategically managing investment portfolios in recovery packages to enable optimal outcomes and foster a post-pandemic green economy

Towards a green recovery in the EU: Aligning further emissions reductions with short- and long-term energy-sector employment gains

To tackle the negative socioeconomic implications of the COVID-19 pandemic, the European Union (EU) introduced the Recovery and Resilience Facility, a financial instrument to help Member States recover, on the basis that minimum 37% of the recovery funds flow towards the green transition. This study contributes to the emerging modelling literature on assessing COVID-19 vis-à-vis decarbonisation efforts, with a particular focus on employment, by optimally allocating the green part of the EU recovery stimulus in selected low-carbon technologies and quantifying the trade-offs between resulting emissions reductions and employment gains in the energy sector. We couple an integrated assessment model with a multi-objective linear-programming model and an uncertainty analysis framework aiming to identify robust portfolio mixes. We find that it is possible to allocate recovery packages to align mitigation goals with both short- and long-term energy-sector employment, although over-emphasising the longer-term sustainability of new energy-sector jobs may be costlier and more vulnerable to uncertainties compared to prioritising environmental and near-term employment gains. Robust portfolios with balanced performance across objectives consistently feature small shares of offshore wind and nuclear investments, while the largest chunks are dominated by onshore wind and biofuels, two technologies with opposite impacts on near- and long-term employment gains

RoboPol: AGN polarimetric monitoring data

We present uniformly reprocessed and re-calibrated data from the RoboPol programme of optopolarimetric monitoring of active galactic nuclei (AGN), covering observations between 2013, when the instrument was commissioned, and 2017. In total, the dataset presented in this paper includes 5068 observations of 222 AGN with Dec > -25 deg. We describe the current version of the RoboPol pipeline that was used to process and calibrate the entire dataset, and we make the data publicly available for use by the astronomical community. Average quantities summarising optopolarimetric behaviour (average degree of polarization, polarization variability index) are also provided for each source we have observed and for the time interval we have followed it.Comment: Accepted to MNRA

Coupling circularity performance and climate action: from disciplinary silos to transdisciplinary modelling science

Technological breakthroughs and policy measures targeting energy efficiency and clean energy alone will not suffice to deliver Paris Agreement-compliant greenhouse gas emissions trajectories in the next decades. Strong cases have recently been made for acknowledging the decarbonisation potential lying in transforming linear economic models into closed-loop industrial ecosystems and in shifting lifestyle patterns towards this direction. This perspective highlights the research capacity needed to inform on the role and potential of the circular economy for climate change mitigation and to enhance the scientific capabilities to quantitatively explore their synergies and trade-offs. This begins with establishing conceptual and methodological bridges amongst the relevant and currently fragmented research communities, thereby allowing an interdisciplinary integration and assessment of circularity, decarbonisation, and sustainable development. Following similar calls for science in support of climate action, a transdisciplinary scientific agenda is needed to co-create the goals and scientific processes underpinning the transition pathways towards a circular, net-zero economy with representatives from policy, industry, and civil society. Here, it is argued that such integration of disciplines, methods, and communities can then lead to new and/or structurally enhanced quantitative systems models that better represent critical industrial value chains, consumption patterns, and mitigation technologies. This will be a crucial advancement towards assessing the material implications of, and the contribution of enhanced circularity performance to, mitigation pathways that are compatible with the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement and the transition to a circular economy

RoboPol: AGN polarimetric monitoring data

We present uniformly reprocessed and re-calibrated data from the RoboPol programme of optopolarimetric monitoring of active galactic nuclei (AGN), covering observations between 2013, when the instrument was commissioned, and 2017. In total, the dataset presented in this paper includes 5068 observations of 222 AGN with Dec > −25○. We describe the current version of the RoboPol pipeline that was used to process and calibrate the entire dataset, and we make the data publicly available for use by the astronomical community. Average quantities summarising optopolarimetric behaviour (average degree of polarization, polarization variability index) are also provided for each source we have observed and for the time interval we have followed it.</p

Heat loss parameter estimation of the Prêt-à-Loger house through calibrated Building Performance Simulations

The calculation of a residential Energy Label in the Netherlands and the payback time of an energy refurbishment are often affected by various inaccuracies between theoretical and actual achieved energy consumption. Even if improvements are attempted on either of them, significant problems occur such as the accuracy of input data for the simulation or the large duration of sufficient measurements. According to the latest research, a significant uncertainty is stemming from the calculation of the space heating requirements. The goal of this study is to increase the input data accuracy for some of the most influential parameters for this calculation, focusing on those depending on the characteristics of the building envelope. These include the U-values of building elements, infiltration factors and the solar gain factors of the windows. To achieve this goal, an automated process is developed, where by calibrating an energy simulation model (BPS) of a house with a sample of actual measured data, an estimation of its real parameters can be produced. This is then used to verify its design, assess the efficiency of its building envelope and create the basis for estimating its yearly energy consumption. The measured data is originating from monitoring the Prêt-à-Loger house, a prototype refurbishment system designed with the intention to render the terraced houses of the Netherlands energy neutral. A sensitivity analysis is first conducted to estimate the relative importance of each parameter in terms of simulation error and energy. The process then succeeds on indicating some difference between live measurements and the simulation produced by the parameter values documented in the design. By treating these parameters as unknown, a model calibration process is set to find them, as in the case of an old house where material properties are lost or undocumented. The process is finally resulting on an adequate range of as-built parameters, validated against further measurements with an acceptable error.Structural and Building EngineeringStructural EngineeringCivil Engineering and Geoscience

The gap between plan and practice: Actual energy performance of the zero-energy refurbishment of a terraced house

Prêt-à-Loger, TU Delft’s entry to the Solar Decathlon Europe 2014 (SDE2014), demonstrated the conversion of a common terraced house to energy neutrality, whilst adding value to its living quality. The house was retrofitted according to principles of smart & bioclimatic design, using local circumstances intelligently in the sustainable redesign. Basis of the Prêt-à-Loger concept is a new skin around the house: thermal insulation in the façade and roof, a greenhouse structure to the south-east, and phase change materials in the crawlspace. The project received a lot of acclaim and was awarded five prizes at SDE2014. During SDE2014, under the circumstances of Versailles, France, the Prêt-à-Loger house proved to be energy producing, and simulations indicated that over a year’s period it would be net zero energy. In spite of these promising results, there are several ways in which a zero-energy (re)design may perform differently than predicted, also in the case of Prêt-à-Loger. Firstly, there may be a difference between design and realisation. Secondly, simulation models may not predict the actual performance correctly. Thirdly, user behaviour can be a decisive factor. With Prêt-à-Loger, the first category could be monitored by the team itself. The fact that the house was constructed three times could however cause small construction deviations from the ideal situation. The second category is the main topic of the research project presented in this paper. Realtime measurements in the house (reconstructed at the TU Delft campus) are executed to validate simulations. Different user behaviour is applied to test differences in actual energy performance, providing useful insight for millions of homes. The results show, for building envelope characteristics, there is no significant difference between the simulations and reality.. A higher variation in the predicted energy can be accounted to user behaviour, specifically to experienced comfort and specific user actions.Real Estate and HousingArchitecture and The Built Environmen

Navigating through an energy crisis: Challenges and progress towards electricity decarbonisation, reliability, and affordability in Italy

Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and amidst COVID-19 recovery efforts, the energy crisis has put enormous pressure to policymakers to balance climate action, sustainable development, and management of the impacts of fuel supply disruptions and price shocks. Policy and market responses, such as liquefied natural gas infrastructure investments and use of every available fossil-fuel lever to make up for Russian gas supply cuts, are feared to trigger new lock-ins, jeopardising decarbonisation. This is also the case in Italy, which is highly dependent on Russia-imported gas. Energy models typically used to support such decisions take time to produce meaningful scenarios and, in times of crisis, are largely driven by highly uncertain parameters. This study uses fuzzy cognitive maps to engage with experts in a workshop and elicit their knowledge and perceptions with the aid of a questionnaire, towards simulating the impact of selected strategies and important uncertainties on the three pillars of Italy's progress to electricity-sector sustainability: decarbonisation, affordability, and reliability. In a framework of deliberation and simulation, experts displayed strong preference for renewable energy, compared to new gas infrastructure. Renewables were notably deemed to have positive impacts across all three sustainabiltiy dimensions and were found more robust against uncertainties, such as regulatory and political instability, which was highlighted as the biggest risk. Critically, despite their expectedly positive impact, demand-side transformations including demand reductions and broader behavioural shifts—a core component of the EU's current approach—may prove inadequate, should large system pressures from negative socio- and techno-economic developments persist